A method of predicting solar storms that could help to avoid widespread power and communications blackouts costing billions of pounds has been launched by researchers at the University of Bradford.
Solar storms involve the release of huge amounts of hot gas and magnetic forces from the surface of the sun into space at around a million miles an hour. The next major solar storms are expected in 2012-13 as part of the sun’s 11-year weather cycle. A 2008 US National Academy of Sciences report estimated that modern reliance on electronics and satellite communications means a major storm could cause twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.
Although major solar eruptions (coronal mass ejections) normally take several days to reach the Earth, the largest recorded in 1859 took just eighteen hours. Solar flares – which can also cause significant disruption to communications systems – take just a few minutes. So advance warning is of vital importance to enable steps to be taken to avoid the worst effects of solar activity.
Up to now, solar weather prediction has been done manually, with experts looking at 2D satellite images of the sun and assessing the likelihood of future activity. But the team from the University of Bradford’s Centre for Visual Computing have created the first online automated prediction system, using 3D images generated from the joint NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (SOHO). The system can be seen at work here.
Already in use by both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), the Bradford Automated Solar Activity Prediction system (ASAP) identifies and classifies sun spots and then feeds this information through a model which can predict the likelihood of solar flares. The system is able to accurately predict a solar flare six hours in advance and the team are working to achieve a similar accuracy for the prediction of major solar eruptions in the near future.
Reader in Visual Computing, Dr Rami Qahwaji, who led the EPSRC-funded research, says: “Solar weather prediction is still very much in its infancy, probably at about the point that normal weather forecasting was around 50 years ago.
“However, our system is a major step forward. By creating an automated system that can work in real time, we open up the possibility for much faster prediction and – with sufficient data – prediction of a wider range of activity. With NASA’s new Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite which came into operation in May, we have the chance to see the sun’s activity in much greater detail which will further improve our prediction capabilities.”
The ASAP model is based on historical data which was analysed to identify patterns in the sun’s activity. Dr Qahwaji is now applying for more funding to further improve the system and ensure it can be adapted to work with the latest sun monitoring satellites.
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Notes for editors:
1.Significant flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can have tremendous negative impacts. It is estimated that during the last sunspot cycle over $2 billion in satellite technology was damaged or destroyed by space weather-related events. A major solar storm, such as the 1859 ‘Carrington’ event (the largest recorded storm to date) could cost the US electrical power grid around $30 billion per day and the space satellite industry up to $70 billion. The protection of over $500 billion in annual revenue from the satellite and electrical power industries is reliant on the accurate forecasting of space weather.
2. A National Academy of Sciences report two years ago entitled "Severe Space Weather Events—Societal and Economic Impacts" noted how our reliance on high-tech systems for the basics of daily life makes us more vulnerable to solar storms, as smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar activity. The report warned that a major solar storm could cause twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.
3. Dr Rami Qahwaji is a member of the Centre for Visual Computing and Reader in Visual Computing at the University of Bradford. His research covers solar imaging, space weather, medical imaging, 3D imaging, signal processing, machine learning and data mining. Dr Qahwaji is currently working with ophthalmologists to develop new tools for 3D corneal imaging.
4. The University of Bradford’s Centre for Visual Computing (CVC) is unique in bringing together computational, physiological and psychological expertise to undertake world-leading research and development in digital imaging, visualisation, human visual perception, computer-based simulations and machine learning. CVC works with organisations in healthcare, visual media, personal care and security providing services ranging from R&D and consultancy to bespoke software development and digital content creation.
5. Founded in 1966, the University of Bradford is one of the UK’s ‘traditional’ universities. It is a research-active institution, with over 80 per cent of its research being rated as either ‘international’ or ‘world-leading’ in the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE).
Known for its strong emphasis on employability skills and knowledge transfer work with businesses, the University has a truly global make up with over 20 per cent of its student population being international. The University is also a leader in sustainable development and education, and is within the top ten greenest universities in the UK, according to the Green League 2009.
6. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). EPSRC is the main UK government agency for funding research and training in engineering and the physical sciences, investing more than £850 million a year in a broad range of subjects – from mathematics to materials science, and from information technology to structural engineering.
